{"definitionRoot":"5e9f19de14247ad507bcdad49fc7f5086ad3b9385953809fa006168db2269326","docsPath":"/docs/MARKET_THESIS_STRESS_TEST.json","errors":[{"code":null,"description":"The request field is invalid.","status":400},{"code":null,"description":"Payment Required - an x402 v2 offer in the PAYMENT-REQUIRED header and body.","status":402},{"code":null,"description":"The result could not be delivered.","status":422},{"code":null,"description":"The seller or the product quote path is not currently admitting this request.","status":503}],"examples":{"deliverable":null,"detail":"Concrete request/deliverable examples are omitted until real settled evidence supplies them; the no-fake-demand rule forbids inventing sample payloads. The envelope shapes above are exact.","request":null,"state":"OMITTED_UNTIL_REAL_EVIDENCE"},"family":"UTILITY","familyTitle":"Utility","freshness":{"evidenceCutoff":"Every delivered envelope states its own evidenceCutoff; requests may pin evidenceCutoff at or before quote time.","freshnessClass":"CACHEABLE_SNAPSHOT","latencyClass":"FAST","machineVersion":"78c5efcc","outputDomainKind":null,"provenance":"The deliverable carries its own uncertainty statement; citations are opaque content hashes for the public evidence used."},"inputSchema":{"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","additionalProperties":false,"properties":{"condition":{"description":"Optional which past starts count as similar to now: \"NONE\", \"TREND\", \"VOLATILITY\" or \"TREND_AND_VOLATILITY\" (default).","type":"string"},"label":{"description":"Optional name of the series (at most 64 bytes).","type":"string"},"lookback":{"description":"Optional periods used to read trend and volatility (default 20).","type":"integer"},"thesis":{"description":"{direction: \"UP\" | \"DOWN\", targetPercent (e.g. 5 for 5%), horizon (periods, at most 1000), stopPercent (optional)}.","type":"object"},"values":{"description":"60 to 4000 positive prices at a fixed period, oldest first.","items":{},"type":"array"}},"required":["values","thesis"],"type":"object","x-arbiter-contentType":"application/json","x-arbiter-schemaVersion":"1.0.0"},"method":"POST","operationId":"agenthubmachinemarket_thesis_stress_test","outputSchema":{"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","properties":{"allStarts":{"description":"{samples, effectiveIndependentSamples, targetFirstRate, stopFirstRate, neitherRate, hitRate, hitRateBasis, hitRateInterval95 {lower, upper, trials}, medianPeriodsToTarget, finalReturn {median, p10, p90}, adverseExcursion {median, p90}}.","type":"object"},"breakevenHitRate":{"description":"stop / (target + stop): the hit rate at which the payoff breaks even, when a stop is given.","type":"number"},"condition":{"description":"The similarity condition used.","type":"string"},"currentState":{"description":"{index, lookback, trend: RISING | FALLING, volatility, volatilityBand: LOW | MIDDLE | HIGH, volatilityTerciles}.","type":"object"},"judgedOn":{"description":"SIMILAR_STARTS, or ALL_STARTS when similar starts give fewer than 5 independent samples.","type":"string"},"label":{"description":"The series name, when given. Labels are echoed as {status:\"OK\",value} or withheld as {status:\"WITHHELD_UNSAFE_TEXT\",rawSha256}.","type":"object"},"observations":{"description":"Prices analysed.","type":"integer"},"program":{"description":"Program identity: {id, version, programRoot, registryRoot}.","type":"object"},"provenance":{"description":"Deliverable provenance: {basis: BUYER_SUPPLIED_INPUT_AND_ARBITER_AUTHORED_CODE, thirdPartyData: false, networkAccess: false, inputRoot, programRoot, outputRoot}. inputRoot is hashCanonical of your exact request (keys sorted, strings byte-exact).","type":"object"},"similarStarts":{"description":"The same statistics for starts in the current state.","type":"object"},"thesis":{"description":"The thesis as tested: {direction, targetPercent, stopPercent, horizon}.","type":"object"},"uncertainty":{"description":"Plain-language limits of this computation.","type":"string"},"verdict":{"description":"SUPPORTED_BY_HISTORY, CONTRADICTED_BY_HISTORY, INCONCLUSIVE or INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY.","type":"string"},"verdictRule":{"description":"The rule the verdict applied, in words.","type":"string"}},"required":["observations","thesis","currentState","condition","allStarts","similarStarts","judgedOn","verdict","verdictRule","program","provenance","uncertainty"],"type":"object","x-arbiter-contentType":"application/json","x-arbiter-schemaVersion":"1.0.0"},"payment":{"admitted":true,"challengeHeader":"PAYMENT-REQUIRED","destination":{"address":"0x63aA5960943865e7d57FDdF0D899eE36B6D2046E","assetContracts":["0xA0b86991c6218b36c1d19D4a2e9Eb0cE3606eB48","0x0b2C639c533813f4Aa9D7837CAf62653d097Ff85","0xe15fC38F6D8c56aF07bbCBe3BAf5708A2Bf42392","0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359","0x754704Bc059F8C67012fEd69BC8A327a5aafb603","0xaf88d065e77c8cC2239327C5EDb3A432268e5831","0xB97EF9Ef8734C71904D8002F8b6Bc66Dd9c48a6E","0x3600000000000000000000000000000000000000","0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913"],"bindingVersion":"a2f250e514c4a05c34efc98c49a4f4ac01a67770884883d19ff3a6487972ed90","networks":["eip155:1","eip155:10","eip155:1329","eip155:137","eip155:143","eip155:42161","eip155:43114","eip155:5042","eip155:8453"],"resolvable":true,"source":"x402_seller_configuration.payTo"},"logicalPaymentHeader":"ARBITER-LOGICAL-PAYMENT-ID","payToSource":"the canonical RevenueWalletResolver binding (x402_seller_configuration.payTo); never an environment value and never a literal","paymentIdentifier":{"extension":"payment-identifier","semantics":"Retries carrying the same payment identifier return the cached delivery with the same receipt: no second settlement, no second work, no second delivery credit.","supported":true},"processingSemantics":"A 202 means verification or settlement is still in progress; retry the same call with the same payment and the same payment identifier.","protocol":"X402_V2","protocolVersion":2,"quoteHeader":"ARBITER-QUOTE-ID","scheme":"exact","signatureHeader":"PAYMENT-SIGNATURE"},"pricing":{"currency":"USD","floorUsd":0.08,"mode":"DYNAMIC_QUOTE","ownerCeilingUsd":null,"pricingClass":"CACHEABLE_UNIT","publicStartingPriceUsd":0.08},"productId":"MARKET_THESIS_STRESS_TEST","productVersion":"3.0.0","provenance":{"basis":"YOUR_INPUT","protocols":[],"sources":["Your request only, computed by Arbiter's own registered program (no third-party data, no network)"]},"resourceUrl":"https://arbiterverse.com/api/x402/MARKET_THESIS_STRESS_TEST","schemaVersion":"3.0.0","summary":"Stress-tests a typed price thesis (\"UP 5% within 10 periods, stop at 3%\") against a price history you supply (60 to 4,000 points): from every past start, how often the target came before the stop, how often neither, the adverse excursion paid on the way and the horizon return; the same for past starts in today's trend and volatility regime; a 95% Wilson interval counting one independent sample per horizon; and a verdict against the breakeven hit rate the payoff implies (SUPPORTED_BY_HISTORY, CONTRADICTED_BY_HISTORY, INCONCLUSIVE or INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY). Computed from your numbers only; not a forecast. Example request: {\"values\":[100,101,102,101,103,104,103,105,106,105,107,108,107,109,110,109,111,112,111,113,112,111,112,113,112,114,115,114,116,117,116,118,119,118,120,121,120,122,123,122,121,120,121,122,121,123,124,123,125,126,125,127,128,127,129,130,129,131,132,131],\"thesis\":{\"direction\":\"UP\",\"targetPercent\":3,\"stopPercent\":2,\"horizon\":5},\"lookback\":5}.","title":"Market thesis stress test (your price history)"}