{"schema":"arbiter.public-performance.v1","generatedAt":"2026-09-28T10:20:51.310Z","disclaimer":"General information, not investment advice; past performance does not predict future results.","audience":{"tier":"free","description":"Free and public. Forecasts and executed actions are shown in full once their outcome window closes or 24 hours after they were committed, whichever is first; until then their time and horizon are shown and their content is sealed."},"methodology":["Every number is computed when requested from Arbiter's durable records: the settled economic ledger, reconciled on-chain transactions, recorded forecasts and their scores, and the decision-cycle table. No figure is entered by hand.","Live results and hypothetical (paper) results are kept apart. Paper results are always labelled hypothetical - no capital.","Every recorded forecast is listed, including misses and forecasts that could not be scored. Scores count only forecasts recorded before their outcome window opened.","Forecast scores: hit rate with a 95% Wilson interval; Brier score and log-loss against a coin flip and against the base rate known at the time of each forecast.","Exchange prices are not republished: forecast outcomes show direction and percentage move only, and benchmarks show percentage change only.","Closed trades are round trips (entry to full exit) with real capital; their hit rate, average win and loss and profit factor use net P&L after all costs. The paid-signals gate counts closed trades, not settlements.","Screening counts are per chain and per refusal reason; no token is named.","Tokenized equities are not tradeable for Arbiter today; equity calls are forecasts only, labelled forecast-only. DeFi lending and yield are not an active strategy by owner direction (2026-09-24).","No balances, wallet details or owner information are published. Settled trades link to their public on-chain transaction."],"ledger":{"state":"publishing","text":"Each UTC day's forecasts and decisions are committed to a published Merkle root."},"live":{"mode":"live","status":"no_live_trades_yet","statusText":"No live trades yet.","currency":"USD","scope":"Realized results are the settled, final entries of Arbiter's economic ledger, each written when an on-chain transaction it sent reached finality; net is after gas and every attributed cost. Data-sale revenue is not trading and is not included. Settlements on test networks are excluded.","firstSettlementAt":null,"lastSettlementAt":null,"realized":{"today":{"netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0},"last7Days":{"netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0},"last30Days":{"netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0},"sinceInception":{"netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0}},"tradingSinceInception":{"netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0},"unrealized":{"usd":0,"openPositions":0,"unpricedPositions":0,"text":"No open positions."},"awaitingFinality":{"events":0,"text":"No ledger events are waiting for finality."},"excluded":{"testnetSettlements":0,"text":"No test-network settlements."},"byAssetClass":[{"key":"crypto","label":"Crypto (spot and routed swaps)","trading":true,"strategyStatus":"active","netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0,"openPositions":0,"statusText":"No live trades yet."},{"key":"defi_lending","label":"DeFi lending and yield","trading":true,"strategyStatus":"not_an_active_strategy","netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0,"openPositions":0,"statusText":"No live trades yet. Not an active strategy by owner direction, 2026-09-24."},{"key":"tokenized_equities_rwa","label":"Tokenized equities and real-world assets (on-chain)","trading":true,"strategyStatus":"forecast_only","netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0,"openPositions":0,"statusText":"No live trades yet. Not tradeable today: no on-chain tokenized-equity venue is open to Arbiter (a US person in New York) for autonomous trading. Equity calls appear as forecasts only, labelled forecast-only."},{"key":"other","label":"Other on-chain activity (data purchases, jobs, safety actions)","trading":false,"strategyStatus":"not_trading","netUsd":0,"grossUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"settlements":0,"openPositions":0,"statusText":"No live trades yet."}],"byVenue":[],"byChain":[],"series":{"daily":[],"weekly":[],"monthly":[]},"equityCurve":{"basis":"Cumulative realized net P&L in USD from zero at the first settlement. It is not an account balance.","points":[]},"maxDrawdown":null,"settlementCount":0,"readerLimitReached":false,"recentSettlements":[],"executionQuality":{"status":"not_yet_recording","text":"Fill receipts (route, submission mode, quote-to-fill slippage, sandwich check) are not recorded yet, so no execution quality is shown. They appear here once the swap lane's receipts are stored.","fills":0,"settlementsWithoutReceipt":0,"slippageBps":{"median":null,"p90":null,"worst":null},"outsidePlannedBand":0,"bySubmissionMode":[],"byRouteSource":[],"sandwichCheck":{"notRun":0,"clean":0,"suspected":0}},"benchmarks":{"status":"starts_at_first_settlement","text":"Benchmarks start at the first live settlement. There is none yet.","basis":"Percentage change since the first live settlement, measured at the end of each UTC day (now, for today). Cash is 0%. Buy-and-hold lines use corroborated USD prices from at least two independent providers; no price level is published. Arbiter's own curve is in dollars because the capital behind it is not published, so compare direction and shape, not magnitude.","anchorAt":null,"lines":[]}},"closedTrades":{"mode":"live","status":"no_closed_trades_yet","statusText":"No closed trades yet.","scope":"A closed trade is a round trip - entry to full exit - with real capital. Net is after every fee and gas cost from the settled ledger. A trade whose settlement also moved another position cannot have its P&L split honestly, so it is listed as unattributed and left out of the hit rate and averages. Hit rate counts wins against losses; profit factor is gross wins over gross losses.","tradeRecords":{"state":"not_yet_recording","text":"The swap lane's own trade records (strategy stage, tier, exit reason, adverse excursion) are not stored yet; closed positions proven by the settled position ledger are shown, with those fields marked not recorded."},"readerLimitReached":false,"excludedTestnetTrades":0,"summary":{"trades":0,"attributed":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"flat":0,"hitRate":{"n":0,"hits":0,"rate":null,"lower95":null,"upper95":null},"averageWinUsd":null,"averageLossUsd":null,"profitFactor":null,"netUsd":0,"costsUsd":0,"averageHoldingMinutes":null},"byStrategy":[],"recent":[]},"screening":{"status":"active","statusText":"10 tokens screened in the last 30 days: 6 admitted, 4 refused.","scope":"Arbiter trades only tokens that pass an automated screen on every admitted EVM chain: token-risk signals, a proven buy-and-sell round trip, liquidity and pool age, pool provenance, price agreement, sanctions and jurisdiction. Counts are each token's latest verdict in the last 30 days, by chain and by refusal reason. Tokens are never named here: these are automated risk signals, not advice or a judgement of any project.","windowDays":30,"lastScreenedAt":"2026-09-28T09:38:14.424Z","readerLimitReached":false,"tokens":{"screened":10,"admitted":6,"refused":4},"byChain":[{"chainId":1,"name":"Ethereum","screened":1,"admitted":1,"refused":0,"admittedByTier":{"A":1,"B":0,"C":0}},{"chainId":10,"name":"OP Mainnet","screened":1,"admitted":1,"refused":0,"admittedByTier":{"A":1,"B":0,"C":0}},{"chainId":56,"name":"BNB Smart Chain","screened":1,"admitted":0,"refused":1,"admittedByTier":{"A":0,"B":0,"C":0}},{"chainId":137,"name":"Polygon PoS","screened":1,"admitted":1,"refused":0,"admittedByTier":{"A":0,"B":1,"C":0}},{"chainId":143,"name":"Monad Mainnet","screened":1,"admitted":0,"refused":1,"admittedByTier":{"A":0,"B":0,"C":0}},{"chainId":4663,"name":"Robinhood Chain","screened":1,"admitted":1,"refused":0,"admittedByTier":{"A":0,"B":1,"C":0}},{"chainId":8453,"name":"Base","screened":1,"admitted":1,"refused":0,"admittedByTier":{"A":1,"B":0,"C":0}},{"chainId":42161,"name":"Arbitrum One","screened":1,"admitted":1,"refused":0,"admittedByTier":{"A":0,"B":1,"C":0}},{"chainId":43114,"name":"Avalanche C-Chain","screened":1,"admitted":0,"refused":1,"admittedByTier":{"A":0,"B":0,"C":0}},{"chainId":59144,"name":"Linea","screened":1,"admitted":0,"refused":1,"admittedByTier":{"A":0,"B":0,"C":0}}],"refusalReasons":[{"code":"liquidity","rule":"other","text":"Refused by a recorded screening rule (code shown).","tokens":4},{"code":"provenance","rule":"other","text":"Refused by a recorded screening rule (code shown).","tokens":1}],"policyRoots":["9647180f0ec0a1fea835acb87acb9321cc9c7603148577b802e0ddfd606dceb9"]},"forecasts":{"status":"active","statusText":"1610 forecasts committed; 151 scored and counted.","scope":"Every forecast Arbiter's research layer recorded appears here, misses included. A forecast states the probability that an asset moves in a direction over a horizon; it is scored against observed prices when its window closes. Only forecasts recorded before their window opened count in the scores; the rest are listed with the reason. Forecasts carry no capital.","firstCommittedAt":"2026-09-27T05:37:37.434Z","readerLimitReached":false,"counts":{"total":1610,"sealed":1436,"open":1436,"awaitingScore":23,"right":75,"wrong":76,"void":0,"countedInScores":151,"notCounted":0},"hitRate":{"n":151,"hits":75,"rate":0.496689,"lower95":0.418018,"upper95":0.575524},"notCountedHitRate":{"n":0,"hits":0,"rate":null,"lower95":null,"upper95":null},"brier":{"arbiter":0.255095,"coinFlip":0.25,"priorBaseRate":0.25,"skillVsCoinFlip":-0.020381,"skillVsPriorBaseRate":-0.020381},"logLoss":{"arbiter":0.703443,"coinFlip":0.693147,"priorBaseRate":0.693147,"skillVsCoinFlip":-0.014854,"skillVsPriorBaseRate":-0.014854},"byConfidence":[{"bucket":"50-55","n":50,"hits":25,"rate":0.5,"lower95":0.366445,"upper95":0.633555},{"bucket":"55-65","n":101,"hits":50,"rate":0.49505,"lower95":0.399527,"upper95":0.590935},{"bucket":"65-75","n":0,"hits":0,"rate":null,"lower95":null,"upper95":null},{"bucket":"75-85","n":0,"hits":0,"rate":null,"lower95":null,"upper95":null},{"bucket":"85-100","n":0,"hits":0,"rate":null,"lower95":null,"upper95":null}],"calibration":[{"bin":"0-10%","lower":0,"upper":0.1,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null},{"bin":"10-20%","lower":0.1,"upper":0.2,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null},{"bin":"20-30%","lower":0.2,"upper":0.3,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null},{"bin":"30-40%","lower":0.3,"upper":0.4,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null},{"bin":"40-50%","lower":0.4,"upper":0.5,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null},{"bin":"50-60%","lower":0.5,"upper":0.6,"n":151,"meanPredicted":0.566266,"observedFrequency":0.496689},{"bin":"60-70%","lower":0.6,"upper":0.7,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null},{"bin":"70-80%","lower":0.7,"upper":0.8,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null},{"bin":"80-90%","lower":0.8,"upper":0.9,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null},{"bin":"90-100%","lower":0.9,"upper":1,"n":0,"meanPredicted":null,"observedFrequency":null}],"streaks":{"current":{"kind":"wrong","length":1},"longestRight":2,"longestWrong":2},"byAssetClass":[{"key":"crypto","label":"Crypto","total":1610,"countedInScores":151,"hitRate":{"n":151,"hits":75,"rate":0.496689,"lower95":0.418018,"upper95":0.575524},"eligibility":null,"text":"Scored the same way as every other forecast."},{"key":"tokenized_equities_rwa","label":"Equities (forecast-only)","total":0,"countedInScores":0,"hitRate":{"n":0,"hits":0,"rate":null,"lower95":null,"upper95":null},"eligibility":"forecast-only","text":"No equity forecasts yet. Not tradeable today: no on-chain tokenized-equity venue is open to Arbiter (a US person in New York) for autonomous trading. Equity calls appear as forecasts only, labelled forecast-only."}],"recent":[{"id":"8cf918ff5ef6d3b2c1df2f5d","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:17:44.744Z","horizon":"24h","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T10:17:25.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T10:17:25.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T10:17:25.000Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"before_window","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded before its outcome window opened.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still open."}},{"id":"04b24902a7ab5c6b2aa135f2","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:17:44.620Z","horizon":"24h","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T10:17:27.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T10:17:27.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T10:17:27.000Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"before_window","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded before its outcome window opened.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still 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open."}},{"id":"191d91e683156974207878f4","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:17:44.350Z","horizon":"24h","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T10:16:47.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T10:16:47.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T10:16:47.000Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"before_window","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded before its outcome window opened.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still open."}},{"id":"cd8677e2b1969ea56a102134","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:17:44.243Z","horizon":"24h","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T10:12:25.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T10:12:25.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T10:12:25.000Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"before_window","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded before its outcome window opened.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still 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open."}},{"id":"7bbd223c07d274c7ddbc4d5c","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:12:45.553Z","horizon":"24h","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T10:07:23.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T10:07:23.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T10:07:23.000Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"before_window","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded before its outcome window opened.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still 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open."}},{"id":"5fea6ee0948ad23972432575","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:07:45.992Z","horizon":"24h","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T09:57:21.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T09:57:21.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T09:57:21.000Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"late","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded after its outcome window opened, so it is listed and scored but not counted in the headline scores.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still open."}},{"id":"7730415eddf2d1aeca4d8ff1","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:07:45.812Z","horizon":"24h","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T09:57:23.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T09:57:23.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T09:57:23.000Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"late","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded after its outcome window opened, so it is listed and scored but not counted in the headline scores.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still open."}},{"id":"7d841125c93827779b2ee39d","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:07:45.637Z","horizon":"24h","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T09:57:20.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T09:57:20.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T09:57:20.000Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"late","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded after its outcome window opened, so it is listed and scored but not counted in the headline scores.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still open."}},{"id":"4d25c1e82aaeda969dec740a","committedAt":"2026-09-28T10:07:45.478Z","horizon":"7d","window":{"opensAt":"2026-09-28T09:57:20.000Z","closesAt":"2026-10-05T09:57:20.000Z"},"visibility":"sealed","revealsAt":"2026-09-29T10:07:45.478Z","asset":null,"assetClass":"crypto","eligibility":null,"direction":null,"probability":null,"commitment":{"timing":"late","countedInScores":false,"text":"Recorded after its outcome window opened, so it is listed and scored but not counted in the headline scores.","ledger":{"day":"2026-09-28","root":null,"state":"pending_ledger"}},"outcome":{"state":"open","badge":"OPEN","resolvedAt":null,"observedDirection":null,"movePct":null,"brier":null,"logLoss":null,"text":"The outcome window is still open."}}]},"decisions":{"status":"active","statusText":"1080 decision cycles recorded.","scope":"Every recorded Arbiter ONE decision cycle (scheduled every 15 minutes while the system is ON), including holding cash, refusals and cycles that stopped themselves. Each refusal shows its recorded reason code and a plain sentence. Amounts, balances and wallet details are never shown.","last24Hours":{"cycles":61,"byKind":{"HOLD_CASH":60,"ACT":0,"REDUCE_RISK":0,"NO_DECISION":1,"IN_PROGRESS":0},"holdCashPct":100,"reasons":[]},"last7Days":{"cycles":515,"byKind":{"HOLD_CASH":322,"ACT":0,"REDUCE_RISK":0,"NO_DECISION":193,"IN_PROGRESS":0},"holdCashPct":100,"reasons":[]},"last30Days":{"cycles":1080,"byKind":{"HOLD_CASH":713,"ACT":25,"REDUCE_RISK":0,"NO_DECISION":329,"IN_PROGRESS":13},"holdCashPct":96.61,"reasons":[{"code":"non_positive_immediate_executable_profit_score","text":"After all costs it would not have earned more than holding cash.","count":176},{"code":"portfolio_capacity_unavailable","text":"Not enough approved capital or risk budget was available.","count":7}]},"lifetimeCycles":1080,"recent":[{"id":"faf82485e51a7c04","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"fa85074f254a6017","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"f9d6beb365ffd6ff","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"f9a1f270ac8f0355","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"f8cbcc1b4d6eda1e","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"f43f78f84b2393b4","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"ee85542aec44ee3f","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"ec80ba265eb385b7","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"e5a53c76da6a687f","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"e4c3002806b9a940","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"e3ead8551caa6468","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"e3e51229e8a9e1b7","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"e0e86ad433834167","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"daf482d312f99f49","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"d984460cdcb562bb","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"d1ad55fbfd670979","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"cbfbd798431dcfbb","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"caec1cd7ce3b17ed","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"c0e45c0fce336e3f","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}},{"id":"bfbc07ead153002c","at":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","closedAt":"2026-09-27T16:58:22.965Z","kind":"HOLD_CASH","headline":"Held cash: there was no candidate to consider. No verified opportunity beat holding cash after all costs.","candidates":{"considered":0,"selected":0,"refused":0,"waiting":0},"reasons":[],"actions":[],"ledger":{"day":"2026-09-27","root":"0f7a645bc7e87aa98822606f8bdc8b095473ea6a58b578677395f9f5bf4577db","state":"published"}}]},"hypothetical":{"mode":"hypothetical","label":"hypothetical - no capital","scope":"Paper results only: no order was placed and no capital moved. They show what the counted forecasts would have returned, before any fee, slippage or gas, and they are never added to the live record.","forecastPaperBook":{"positions":151,"cumulativeReturnPct":171.4414,"averageReturnPct":1.1354,"favorable":{"n":151,"hits":75,"rate":0.496689,"lower95":0.418018,"upper95":0.575524},"series":[{"date":"2026-09-28","dailyReturnPct":171.4414,"cumulativeReturnPct":171.4414}],"basis":"One equal, unleveraged paper unit per counted up/down forecast, in the direction the forecast favoured, held over its window. Returns are summed in percentage points (no compounding) and exclude all costs."},"paperTrades":{"recorded":0,"settled":0,"favorable":{"n":0,"hits":0,"rate":null,"lower95":null,"upper95":null},"text":"No paper trades recorded."}},"paidSignals":{"tier":"paid_signals","offered":false,"gate":{"minimumLiveRecordDays":90,"minimumLiveClosedTrades":30,"requirePositiveNetAfterCosts":true},"progress":{"liveRecordDays":0,"liveClosedTrades":0,"liveSettlements":0,"netAfterCostsUsd":0},"gateMet":false,"text":"Not offered. The gate is at least 90 days and 30 closed live trades (round trips, not settlements) with a positive trading result after all costs. If the record is negative, it stays free."}}